当希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)上月表示，南海主权争端的解决事关美国国家利益时，她很可能打破了过去十年里，这一地区保持的一种微妙的外交平衡。

中国对能源安全的追逐，邻国对中国实力升级的忧虑，以及美国对中国政府在南海地区——不仅油气资源丰富且拥有多条重要海运航线——军事扩张的担心，调成了一杯很可能会爆炸的鸡尾酒。过去十年，正是这种微妙的外交平衡让这杯鸡尾酒还不曾引爆。

美国国务卿在亚洲安全论坛上呼吁以多边方式解决南海主权争端，称之为“需要优先解决的外交事务”，不禁让人们注意到，美国政府对该地区正感到越发不安。

中国大陆、越南、马来西亚、菲律宾、文莱、台湾和印度尼西亚也宣布对南海拥有全部或部分主权。南海海域从中国海南岛一直延伸到婆罗洲北海岸。主权主张最为重叠的地方主要靠近南沙群岛和西沙群岛。

2002年，中国与东盟(Asean)签署了一份宣言，各方承诺在这片有争议的海域保持自我克制。但东盟成员国感到该协定已变得没有意义，观察人士也谈到，中国在南海正变得更强硬，而渔船和海军之间的冲突也在增多。多年来一直是邻国之间的这场争端，正被提上全球层面。

中国在海南新建的一个潜艇基地，预计会使中国海军在该海域变得更加活跃，会可能会限制美国海军在当地的活动自由。

麻省理工学院(MIT)中国安全问题专家傅泰林(Taylor Fravel)表示，中国政府最近将南海称作其“核心利益”——而这种地位过去只被赋予台湾和西藏，尽管中国政府表示，这种提法“仅应用于中国反对的特定美国活动，而不是广泛应用于南海争端”。

“中国人可能将南海部分地区，视为其未来弹道导弹潜艇潜在的防御阵地，”国际战略研究所的蒂姆·赫胥黎(Tim Huxley)表示。

“中国对南海兴趣增加，不仅仅因为自然资源。还有实实在在的战略问题。”

中国政府在对希拉里言论的首次官方回应中，谴责了希拉里将南海争端“国际化”，并透露中国上周在该地区进行了一次海军军事演习。

在华盛顿，人们的观点是，希拉里的言论反应了美国的担忧，即如果不加遏制，中国的军事扩张有可能改变该地区的政治格局。

“中国正将军事重心从以陆地为中心，转变为以海、空为中心的能力，”美国参谋长联席会议主席麦克•马伦(Mike Mullen)上将最近在印度表示。“太平洋地区是一个至关重要的经济区，一个至关重要的贸易区……（因此）我对中国的发展方向已经从好奇转变为担忧。”

东南亚各国政府也表达了担忧。

印度尼西亚正在牵头，试图达成某种地区共识。

在最近写给联合国的一封信函中，印尼政府表示，中国试图利用孤立的小岛来确立合法主权主张的做法，“显然缺乏国际法律基础”，放任中国将削弱《联合国海洋法公约》——国际上确立主权的框架性文件——的效力。

“（中国的军事扩张）是一个事实，”印尼外交部发言人特库•费扎亚(Teuku Faizasyah)表示。他说，中国的强大加深了亚洲地区的猜疑。

赫胥黎表示，对一些人眼中的来自中国的欺压，越南和马来西亚也已开始反抗，尽管后者程度稍轻一点。

从中国的角度来看，情况完全不同。厦门大学南海问题专家李金明表示，中国担心，越南正在推进在有争议地区的石油勘探。

联合国允许沿海国家对与他们大陆架相连的海床延伸部分提出主权主张，最后期限定在去年初，这让情况变得更糟。菲律宾、越南和马来西亚提出的主张引发来自中国的干预，后者对几乎整个南海提出了主权主张。

菲律宾外交部的一位官员表示，东盟成员国希望召开一次东盟与中国的高级官员会议，讨论起草一份具有约束力的行为准则。“但中国目前态度含糊，”他补充说。

中国政府相信，时间站在自己这边。

驻北京的军事分析人士宋晓军表示，东盟国家把赌注押在中美两国的对抗上，“脚踩两只船”。但他认为，中国经济的持续崛起最终将改变事态。

US VENTURES INTO TROUBLED ASIAN WATERS

When Hillary Clinton said last month that the resolution of territorial disputes in the South China Sea was in the US national interest, she threatened to upset a delicate diplomatic balance that has been maintained for the past decade.

That restraint has held in check a potentially explosive cocktail composed of China's pursuit of energy security, its neighbours' fears about its growing power and US concerns about Beijing's military expansion in an oil and gas-rich area. The sea is also home to key shipping lanes.

The US secretary of state drew attention to Washington's growing anxiety about the region when she added her voice to calls for a multilateral approach to resolving territorial disputes in the South China Sea during an Asian security forum, calling the issue a “leading diplomatic priority”.

China, Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei, Taiwan and Indonesia lay claims to all or part of the body of water that extends from China's Hainan island to the northern coast of Borneo. The areas with the most overlapping claims are mainly near the Spratly and Paracel island groups.

In 2002, China and the Association of South East Asian Nations (Asean) signed a declaration of conduct, under which all parties pledged to exercise restraint in the disputed waters. But Asean members feel that the accord has become meaningless, and observers speak of a new Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea, while disputes between fishing vessels and naval forces are on the rise. What has for many years been a dispute between neighbours is also gaining a global dimension.

A new submarine base on Hainan is expected to result in China's navy becoming more active in regional waters. This could restrict the US navy's freedom of movement in the area.

Beijing also recently called the South China Sea a “core interest” – a status it had in the past only assigned to Taiwan and Tibet, although Beijing made its reference “in the context of specific US activities that China opposed, not the dispute more generally”, said Taylor Fravel, an expert on Chinese security issues at Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

“The Chinese may see parts of the South China Sea as the potential redoubt for their future ballistic missile-carrying submarines,” said Tim Huxley of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

“China's greater interest in the South China Sea [is] not just about natural resources. There are hard strategic issues as well.”

When Beijing issued its first official reaction to Mrs Clinton's comments, it made a point of condemning the “internationalisation” of the dispute and also disclosed that it had conducted a naval exercise in the area last week.

The view in Washington is that Mrs Clinton's comments reflect US concerns that, left unchecked, China's military drive could transform the region's political landscape.

“China is shifting its military focus from a land-centric focus to an air and maritime-focused capability,” Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, said in India recently. “The Pacific region is a critical economic region; a critical trade region . . . [and so] I've gone from being curious about where China's headed to being concerned about it.”

South-east Asian governments have also expressed concern.

Indonesia is leading efforts to try to forge a regional consensus.

In a recent letter to the UN, Jakarta said China's attempt to use isolated islets to establish its legal claim to sovereignty “clearly lacks international legal basis”, and to allow it would undermine the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea – the framework for establishing sovereignty.

“[China's military expansion] is a fact,” said Teuku Faizasyah, a spokesman for Indonesia's foreign ministry. China's growth was increasing suspicion in the region, he said.

Vietnam, and to a lesser extent Malaysia, have also begun to push back against what some see as Chinese bullying, says Mr Huxley.

From China's perspective, things look different. Li Jinming, a South China Sea expert at Xiamen University, says China is concerned about Vietnam pushing ahead with oil exploration in disputed areas.

A UN deadline early last year for coastal states to file claims for stretches of seabed linked to their continental shelf made things worse. Claims filed by the Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia triggered an intervention from China, which claims virtually all of the South China Sea.

A Philippine foreign ministry official said Asean members wanted a meeting of senior officials from the regional group and China to discuss the drafting of a binding code of conduct. “But China is non-committal at this time,” he added.

Beijing believes that time is on its side.

Song Xiaojun, a Beijing-based military analyst, says Asean countries are betting on the rivalry between China and the US, with “a foot on one boat each”. But he thinks China's continued economic rise will change the odds eventually.

转自FT中文网